As with banner advertising, effectiveness of preroll and overlay ads will decline over time as users begin to be annoyed that they are being held captive by advertisers before they can watch the video they really want to see (this is what sparked the creation of TiVo, after all). New advertising models that align with the medium will be necessary. Here are three that could work.
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Even for those who are sold on the effectiveness of online video, its smart to think ahead. The article makes a great point about the parallels between banner and video--effectiveness will decrease over time as saturation increases and people become more "ad blind" to video with familiarity.